REC: Jobs Outlook - October. Growing economic uncertainty amongst agency worker hirers, but jobs market remains robust
Wednesday, 19 October 2022
Confidence
In July-September 2022, business confidence in the UK economy fell by a further 3% from the previous rolling quarter to net: -67, a new record low. However, employers in September (net: -69) were more optimistic than in August (net: -71).
Employers’ confidence in making hiring and investment decisions fell slightly to net: -27. Similarly, there was a slight uptick in September to net: -26 from net: -31 in August.
Permanent recruitment
Do you think the number of permanent workers in your organisation will increase or decrease in the next three months?
In July-September 2022, employers’ intentions to hire permanent staff in the short-term remained buoyant at net: +17. Regionally, sentiment was the highest in the North of England (net: +22), followed by the Midlands (net: +21). When it comes to business size and structure, mid-sized (50-249 employee) organisations’ sentiment rose to net: +27, as did private businesses to net: +19.
Temporary recruitment
Do you think the number of agency workers in your organisation will increase or decrease in the next three months?
In the three months to September, employers’ intentions to hire temporary agency workers in the short-term declined by 9% to net: +6. All regions in the UK recorded a decrease in sentiment, but hiring intentions were notably higher in the Midlands at net: +22 compared to the devolved nations at net: -12. Forecast demand for mid-sized enterprises remained positive at net: +14 and increased within the public sector from negative territory to net: +8.5.
Topical question
The challenges associated with correctly determining holiday pay for irregular hours workers is causing the most confusion amongst in-house HR and recruitment teams.
Following the Harpur Trust v Brazel judgement in July 2022, 15% of respondents reported being confused, whilst a further 64% were unsure as to whether the organisation understood the impact. Similarly, more than one in five (22%) were unsure about what alternative calculation to an accrual could be used for irregular hours workers.
One other area of great uncertainty (58%) related to whether the organisation understood its obligation in reminding workers to take their entitled leave.
